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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the current field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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